The Week Ahead: Highlights

Asia-Pacific Preview

Central Banks in the Spotlight as Inflation Heats Up

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

Monetary policy meetings will be the main focus in the Asia-Pacific region in the week ahead. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold for the second consecutive meeting early last month, soon after the onset of the Iran conflict. Officials noted then that considered the merits of a pre-emptive rate hike to deal with potential inflation risks but concluded that doing so would risk "unnecessarily stifling the economic recovery." They noted, however, that "decisive and timely increases" in the policy rate would be required if core inflation and wage growth do not stay contained.  

The Bank of Korea is also scheduled to announce its policy decision. The BOK has held its base rate steady at 2.50 percent since mid-2025, and officials provided little indication that they expect to shift this stance at their most recent meeting in April. Fuel prices pushed headline CPI inflation higher in March, but core inflation was unchanged at 2.2 percent.

Australian data releases will include monthly CPI and household spending data and the quarterly private new capital expenditure report. Inflation will be the main focus after a sharp pick-up in headline inflation from 3.7 percent in February to 4.6 percent in March, mainly reflecting the impact of fuel prices. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised policy rates again earlier this month and noted that inflation risks have worsened, with next week's data like to shape expectations about the next policy meeting.

Other economic reports out in the week ahead include Taiwan, Singapore and India GDP reports, South Korean industrial production and retail sales data, industrial prodcution reports from Singapore, Taiwan and India, and trade data from Hong Kong.

Europe Preview

European Data Could Show Stagflation Risks

By Marco Babic, Econoday Economist

With the conflict in the Middle East now three months old, the week ahead's producer- and consumer price reports for May and first quarter GDP for some of Europe's major economies will be closely watched for the degree of acceleration in prices. GDP data will include data for March when the conflict started.

Producer prices which are indicators of pipeline inflation showed signs of heating up in March and are likely to continue to do so in April. France saw PPI rise 2.0 percent in March, while in Italy it rose 5.9 percent month-on-month. While anecdotal evidence in the PMIs show companies holding back on passing prices fully onto customers, the longer the conflict continues, the more difficult will be the price restraint.

Which brings us to CPI. In April, Germany's CPI was up 0.6 percent month-on-month and 2.9 percent year-on-year, while Italy's climbed 1.1 percent and 2.7 percent. Inflation in France was more moderate at 1.0 percent month-on-month and 2.2 percent year-on-year. All of the annual rates are above the 2.0 percent threshold the European Central Bank regards as price stability. And there is no sign that prices will be slowing down. Even though core measures which exclude energy are showing lower inflation than the headline numbers, consumers are nevertheless forced to make choices.

The ECB releases the minutes of its previous meeting on Thursday and those will no doubt show concerns over inflation. The central bank announces its next rate decision on June 11.

On Friday, France and Italy report their first quarter GDP results. The flash reading for France was for a 0.2 percent increase over the fourth quarter and a 1.1 percent year-on-year gain. The question is with more data, will the result be lower than first expected.

Italy on the other hand, reports flash results. In the fourth quarter of last year, the economy grew 0.2 percent from the previous three months and 0.7 percent from the same quarter a year ago. The question it was the economy resilient enough to expand even modestly in the first quarter of the year.

US Preview

Mideast plus Personal income, Spending in Focus on Light Data Week

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

A short US week ahead after the Memorial Day holiday, with ongoing geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict still a major focus. With negotiations about transit through the Straits of Hormuz still unresolved, any move to ramp up shipping in coming days may still prompt renewed escalation of tensions.

The April personal income and spending report will be the highlight of the US data calendar, with the PCE inflation measures a key focus after they rose sharply in March. The headline PCE deflator picked up sharply from 2.8 percent to February to 3.5 percent in March, its highest level since 2023, though the increase in the core measure was more subdued, up from 3.0 percent to 3.2 percent. This week's data should provide some indication of whether the Iran conflict is having a broader impact on price pressures and consumer spending.

The second estimate of GDP for the three months to March is also scheduled for release following an advance reading that showed real GDP grew at a solid 2.0 percent annualized pace. The advance estimates showed stronger exports, government spending, and business investment were held back by softer consumer spending and a much higher rate of imports. Housing data will round out the releases with the S&P Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Indexes for March.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

Singapore CPI for April (Mon 1300 SGT; Mon 0500 GMT; Mon 0100 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.0% to 2.0%

The consensus sees CPI rising to 2.0 percent from a year ago in April from 1.8 percent in March.

Tuesday

Singapore GDP for First Quarter (Tue 0800 SGT; Tue 0000 GMT; Mon 2000 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.2% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 5.2%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 4.6% to 5.4%

Forecasters see growth at 0.2 percent in Q1 from Q4 and up 5.2 percent on year.

Singapore Industrial Production for April (Tue 1300 SGT; Tue 0500 GMT; Tue 0100 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 2.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: 2.0% to 2.0%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 12.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 12.0% to 19.4%

The consensus sees robust gains with output up 2.0 percent on the quarter and up 12.0 percent on year in April.

US Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for March (Tue 0900 EDT; Tue 1300 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, 20-City Adjusted - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, 20-City Adjusted - M/M: -0.1% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, 20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y: 1.0%

Consensus Range, 20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y: 0.3% to 1.2%

Housing price increases remain muted with Case-Shiller expected up only 1.0 percent in March after a similar 0.9 percent in February.

US FHFA House Price Index for March (Tue 0900 EDT; Tue 1300 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.0% to 1.8%

Similar to the Case Shiller measure -- FHFA housing prices expected at the same 1.7 percent increase on year in March as in February.

US Consumer Confidence for May (Tue 1000 EDT; Tue 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 92.0

Consensus Range, Index: 91.0 to 93.7

Confidence expected to erode further to 92.0 in May from an already gloomy 92.8 in April as consumers remain upset about rising prices.

US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for May (Mon 1030 EDT; Mon 1430 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, General Activity Index: -1.0

Consensus Range, General Activity Index: -1.0 to 0.0

The survey is expected to show ongoing slow contraction in business conditions with the index at minus 1.0 in May versus minus 2.3 in April.

Wednesday

Australia Monthly CPI for April (Wed 1130 AEST; Wed 0130 GMT; Tue 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 4.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.9% to 5.1%

CPI inflation seen slowing marginally to 4.4 percent in April from 4.6 percent in March.

New Zealand RBNZ Announcement (Wed 1400 NZDT; Wed 0100 GMT; Tue 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 2.25%

Consensus Range, Level: 2.25% to 2.25%

No one is looking for a change this time from the RBNZ as growth is slowing while inflation picks up.

US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May (Tue 1000 EDT; Tue 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 4.0

Consensus Range, Index: 4.0 to 5.0

The consensus sees the index at 4.0 in May versus 3.0 in April.

Thursday

South Korea Bank of Korea Announcement (Thu 0900 KST; Thu 0000 GMT; Wed 2000 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 2.5%

Consensus Range, Level: 2.5% to 2.5%

Forecasters see the BOK on hawkish hold -- warning of rate increases to come if inflation stays hot.

Australia Capital Expenditures for First Quarter (Thu 1130 AEST; Thu 0130 GMT; Wed 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 1.0%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.0% to 4.0%

Capex expected to pick up to 1.0 percent growth on quarter in Q1, powered by data center construction what else?

Australia Household Spending for April (Thu 1130 AEST; Thu 0130 GMT; Wed 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.4%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.4% to 0.5%

After a very strong March, spending expected to fall back in April. A cut in fuel taxes helps offset rising energy prices.

Eurozone EC Economic Sentiment for May (Thu 1100 CEST; Thu 0900 GMT; Thu 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Economic Sentiment: 92.3

Consensus Range, Economic Sentiment: 91.0 to 93.5

Consensus Forecast, Industry Sentiment: -8.0

Consensus Range, Industry Sentiment: -8.6 to -7.0

Business suffering weight of rising energy prices with sentiment expected down to 92.3 in May from 93.0 in April.

US Durable Goods Orders for April (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, New Orders - M/M: 2.6%

Consensus Range, New Orders - M/M: 0.1% to 4.5%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Transportation - M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, Ex-Transportation - M/M: 0.1% to 0.9%

Another swing in aircraft orders expected to lift the overall figure by 2.6 percent while the ex-transportation number is up a moderate 0.5 percent.

US GDP for First Quarter (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q - Annual Rate, Revised: 2.1%

Consensus Range, Q/Q - Annual Rate, Revised: 2.0% to 2.2%

Consensus Forecast, Personal Consumption Expenditure - Annual Rate: 1.7%

Consensus Range, Personal Consumption Expenditure - Annual Rate: 1.6% to 1.7%

Q1 GDP expected at 2.1 percent versus 2.0 percent in the advance.

US Jobless Claims for Week 05/23 (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 213K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 210K to 215K

Claims expected at 213K versus 209K, steady in their recent range, consistent with a surprisingly stable job market.

US Personal Income and Outlays for April (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Personal Income - M/M: 0.4%

Consensus Range, Personal Income - M/M: 0.3% to 0.6%

Consensus Forecast, Personal Consumption Expenditures - M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, Personal Consumption Expenditures - M/M: 0.3% to 0.9%

Consensus Forecast, PCE Price Index - M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, PCE Price Index - M/M: 0.5% to 0.6%

Consensus Forecast, PCE Price Index - Y/Y: 3.8%

Consensus Range, PCE Price Index - Y/Y: 3.6% to 4.0%

Consensus Forecast, Core PCE Price Index - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Core PCE Price Index - M/M: 0.2% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Core PCE Price Index - Y/Y: 3.3%

Consensus Range, Core PCE Price Index - Y/Y: 3.3% to 3.3%

Moderate ongoing increases in spending and income expected. The focus will be PCE prices which are expected to be lifted by fuel costs to show a big 0.5 percent rise on the month and a 0.3 percent increase ex-food & energy.

US New Home Sales for April (Thu 1000 EDT; Thu 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 660K

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 645K to 675K

Sales seen at an annual 660K rate in April, down from an already sluggish 682K in March.

Friday

South Korea Industrial Production for April (Fri 0800 KST; Thu 2300 GMT; Thu 1900 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.3% to 0.9%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.3% to 4.0%

Output seen up 0.3 percent on month and 2.4 percent on year in April after rising 0.3 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, in March.

France CPI for May (Fri 0845 CEST; Fri 0645 GMT; Fri 0245 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.4% to 2.9%

May CPI expected up 2.7 percent on year, up from 2.2 percent in April as the energy shock continues.

France GDP for First Quarter (Fri 0845 CEST; Fri 0645 GMT; Fri 0245 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.0%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.0% to 0.0%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.1%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.1% to 1.1%

No growth now expected on quarter.

Germany Unemployment Rate for May (Fri 0955 CEST; Fri 0755 GMT; Fri 0355 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Rate: 6.4%

Consensus Range, Rate: 6.4% to 6.5%

Jobless rate expected flat again at 6.4 percent.

Italy CPI for May (Fri 1100 CEST; Fri 0900 GMT; Fri 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.2% to 3.4%

Fuel price jump seen lifting CPI to 3.3 percent increase on year in May versus 2.7 percent in April.

Germany CPI for May (Fri 0800 CEST; Fri 0600 GMT; Fri 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.7%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.9%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.7% to 3.4%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: 0.1% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 3.0%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 2.8% to 3.1%

CPI seen up only 0.1 percent on month and up 2.9 percent on year after rising 0.6 percent and 2.9 percent in April.

Canada Monthly GDP for March (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.1%

Forecasters look for GDP up 0.1 percent, topping the Stats Canada 0.0 percent estimate.

Canada GDP for First Quarter (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 1.4%

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 0.7% to 1.7%

The consensus looks for growth to pick up to 1.4 percent annual rate from 0.7 percent in Q4.

US International Trade in Goods (Advance) for April (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: -$88.4 B

Consensus Range, Balance: -$89.4 B to -$82.5 B

The trade gap is seen pretty flat at $88.4 billion in April versus $88.7 billion in March.

US Chicago PMI for May (Fri 0945 EDT; Fri 1345 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 51.2

Consensus Range, Index: 48.7 to 51.8

The index expected back up in expansion territory at 51.2 in May from 49.2 in April.